Forrester Research is declaring “The Great Recession” over in their new report “US Online Retail Forecast, 2010 To 2015.” Forrester is predicting double-digit CAGR (compound annual growth rate) from 2010 to 2015. They expect e-commerce to reach $278.9 billion in 2015.
While this shows impressive growth, over 70% of the growth came from existing online shoppers simply purchasing more. In 2010 online retail was still just 8% of total retail sales, evidence that online retail still has enormous growth potential.
Forrester states new online shopping models such as flash sales will contribute to the estimated growth. I predict even more innovation in online commerce in the next few years. Flash and one-day sales are nothing new – Woot.com was founded in 2004 and continues to show impressive growth. Private member-only websites such as Gilt are all the rage now, but really offer very little actual innovation. They simply hide product pricing behind a members-only area. I think this business model is flawed because it is dependent on low-price leaders (even in the luxury space).
You can view a summary or purchase the report on Forrester’s website, or read a bit more in their blog post about the report. Also check out Mashable’s commentary on the report.